Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 21.663847 22.878266 24.158193 25.613476 27.229476 28.977375 31.022416
2025-12-28 20.205544 21.887714 23.743815 25.963853 28.574611 31.583593 35.369221
2026-01-04 18.872693 20.752732 22.884976 25.516695 28.728094 32.590800 37.706672
2026-01-11 18.296274 20.394790 22.835732 25.939028 29.864117 34.792037 41.679488
2026-01-18 17.722693 19.974064 22.647412 26.131278 30.675241 36.600699 45.303580
2026-01-25 16.970810 19.280388 22.064680 25.760715 30.695668 37.324896 47.461134
2026-02-01 16.282495 18.621629 21.477409 25.328023 30.574102 37.807733 49.278970
2026-02-08 15.454125 17.748692 20.572667 24.418815 29.728053 37.176435 49.283977
2026-02-15 15.268362 17.670462 20.670733 24.833899 30.724714 39.268175 53.851769
2026-02-22 15.025850 17.504855 20.640950 25.064329 31.463154 41.029806 58.135861
2026-03-01 14.477253 16.922716 20.036727 24.466379 30.949108 40.800108 58.870134
2026-03-08 13.647879 15.953100 18.888477 23.063926 29.174440 38.459413 55.489944
2026-03-15 13.280120 15.622879 18.643574 23.011141 29.549207 39.810089 59.640344
2026-03-22 13.040013 15.452853 18.608892 23.259794 30.411694 42.087103 66.207532
2026-03-29 12.611588 15.011140 18.177250 22.897814 30.279690 42.638227 69.332446
2026-04-05 12.456477 14.926721 18.230033 23.245462 31.299334 45.345370 78.065077
2026-04-12 12.252284 14.765167 18.163646 23.404308 32.016567 47.596935 86.585131
2026-04-19 11.917859 14.412142 17.809092 23.098418 31.918765 48.258824 91.182389
2026-04-26 11.588939 14.055622 17.434928 22.740536 31.700478 48.648508 95.178227
2026-05-03 11.159157 13.547286 16.825285 21.985785 30.736954 47.405082 93.858123
2026-05-10 11.077354 13.520497 16.910737 22.330813 31.744490 50.416339 107.437739
2026-05-17 10.955796 13.432873 16.902056 22.522019 32.488164 52.987361 121.331203
2026-05-24 10.649950 13.075953 16.483214 22.025361 31.917419 52.499964 123.147012